Study: Facebook Use to Decline Over Next 5 Years

Social Media

February 3, 2014 -- A newly released survey shows that overall use of the world’s most popular social media, Facebook, may be prone to decline. The survey, conducted by the USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future and Bovitz, Inc., found that almost one-third of all Facebook users will use the service less within five years.

In addition, the study also found that current use of quick messaging sites (microblogs) -- like Twitter and Instagram -- is growing rapidly.

Facebook topping out in popularity?
 

• 30% of respondents who are Facebook users predict they will be using popular social media site “less” or “a lot less” in five years. More than half (54%) of all respondents expect to be using it about the same in five years.

 
Source: USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future, 2014

Future generational use of Facebook
 

• Significant percentages of Millennials (young adults, ages 18-34) and non-Millennials alike said they will be using Facebook less in five years; Nearly three in 10 adults and half of all teens expect to make less use of the site.

• In five years, older adults (those age 35 and older) will be the heaviest users of Facebook, the study shows.

Source: USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future, 2014

Instagram and Twitter growth
 

• The survey found that number of Instagram and Twitter users is growing dramatically – especially among Millennials; Nearly six in 10 Millennials use Twitter and almost half say they use Instagram.

 
Source: USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future, 2014

Thoughts about the study's trends

“The growth of Twitter and Instagram show that users are eager to get their voices out there in a quick and engaging way,” said Jeffrey I. Cole, director of the Center for the Digital Future. “Social media users – teens and Millennials especially – are craving to be heard.”

The new findings reinforce two predictions by Cole about the erosion in the use of mass-market social media sites by young audiences:  In 2005, Cole predicted that the young user base at MySpace would decline – “MySpace lost its ‘cool factor’ when young users saw that their older siblings and parents had begun using it,” said Cole.

In 2010, Cole said that Facebook would continue to grow overall for at least five years, while at the same time, lose some of its appeal to young audiences.   

“Facebook won’t collapse as a social platform as MySpace did; it now has more than one billion users, and should reach at least 1.5 billion users – a phenomenal number – with especially strong growth in developing countries,” Cole said.

Instead of being the primary social media site for trendsetters, Cole said, “Facebook will become the phone directory for the planet.   Young users will to go to Facebook as the place where they communicate with their families, and as the site where they search for someone. Then users will move that relationship to a smaller online community, such as a microblog.”
 

About: The findings were developed from research produced by the Center for the Digital Future and Bovitz, Inc. that covers issues such as privacy, social media use, use of technology at school, stress and technology, and norms regarding the presence of technology in social settings.  The Topical Survey, an online consumer panel, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and was conducted in fall 2013.

Source: USC Annenberg News, USC ANNENBERG CENTER FOR THE DIGITAL FUTURE AND BOVITZ, INC. REPORT FACEBOOK USE WILL DECLINE IN FIVE YEARS; TWITTER AND INSTAGRAM ARE GROWING, Feb.3 2014.